Description: GDP growth has slowed as numerous headwinds have emerged. This article summarizes a research paper by Mark Alberts and Max Rudolph that addresses reasons why this is so and how risk managers can address using scenarios.

Description: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been our chosen metric for growth since the Great Depression, but expectations are for lower GDP growth going forward than we are accustomed to. Its two components, population and productivity, face headwinds—population from a declining birth rate and longevity, and productivity from increased climate events, energy costs, global conflict and raw materials shortages. Comparing demographic results from the U.S., China and Nigeria, representing countries with varying population growth rates, illustrates the potential economic growth issues of aging populations and high dependency ratios. The demographic challenges can be turned into opportunities to broaden prosperity; productivity can be improved by providing a level playing field and helping those in the lowest socioeconomic classes find opportunities. These topics and more will be discussed and enhance foresight about them.

Description: The recent financial crisis created incentives to review investment practices and see what was done well and what could be improved for the future. Looking inward at insurer investment practices, background trend information was generated and a survey developed for insurers to share their thoughts. The research continued with conversations in private and public forums, where initial conclusions were expanded.

Description: This paper provides a high-level review of climate models for the actuary and shows they are not impenetrable, intriguing the reader enough to seek out additional resources.

Description: This article summarizes an emerging risk research project completed by the Joint Risk Management Section. The major categories of risks in the survey were 1. Economic, 2. Environmental, 3. Geopolitical, 4. societal and 5. Technological.

Description: The Joint Risk Management Section conducted its fourth survey of emerging risks in fall 2010 in light of the BP oil spill which brought the impact of various risk combinations to the fore.